Developing hydrological and reservoir models under deep uncertainty of climate change: robustness of water supply reservoir

Developing hydrological and reservoir models under deep uncertainty of climate change: robustness of water supply reservoir

Článek WoS

Adaptation of water resources to climate change, drought management strategies, and hydrological and reservoir modelling have become serious issues in the context of climate change uncertainty. The aim of this paper is to introduce methods and tools for hydrological analysis and robust reservoir performance evaluation in this time of deep uncertainty. Newly developed lumped water balance and reservoir simulation models will be used to perform hydrological analysis, and a robust reservoir storage capacity reliability assessment will also be conducted. The hydrological data in relation to climate change will be constructed using two climatological datasets created by statistical downscaling tools LARS WG and ENSEMBLE Downscaling Portal. The hydrological analysis and the temporal reliability of the assessment of reservoir storage capacity and robustness in the context of climate change uncertainty will be presented as a case study of the Vir I reservoir and the Svratka River basin in the Czech Republic, in central Europe. The resulting models show a decrease in long-term mean flow, ranging from 6% to 32%, and in reservoir outflow from 1.5% to 26%, depending on the timescale, downscaling tools and emission scenarios.

Adaptation of water resources to climate change, drought management strategies, and hydrological and reservoir modelling have become serious issues in the context of climate change uncertainty. The aim of this paper is to introduce methods and tools for hydrological analysis and robust reservoir performance evaluation in this time of deep uncertainty. Newly developed lumped water balance and reservoir simulation models will be used to perform hydrological analysis, and a robust reservoir storage capacity reliability assessment will also be conducted. The hydrological data in relation to climate change will be constructed using two climatological datasets created by statistical downscaling tools LARS WG and ENSEMBLE Downscaling Portal. The hydrological analysis and the temporal reliability of the assessment of reservoir storage capacity and robustness in the context of climate change uncertainty will be presented as a case study of the Vir I reservoir and the Svratka River basin in the Czech Republic, in central Europe. The resulting models show a decrease in long-term mean flow, ranging from 6% to 32%, and in reservoir outflow from 1.5% to 26%, depending on the timescale, downscaling tools and emission scenarios.

climate change, deep uncertainty, reliability, reservoir simulation model, robustness, water balance model

climate change, deep uncertainty, reliability, reservoir simulation model, robustness, water balance model

MARTON, D.; KNOPPOVÁ, K.

2020

01.12.2019

IWA Publishing

lliance House, 12 Caxton Street, London, SW1H 0QS, UK

1606-9749

Water Supply

19

5

Spojené království Velké Británie a Severního Irska

2222

2230

9

https://iwaponline.com/ws/article-abstract/doi/10.2166/ws.2019.102/68927/Developing-hydrological-and-reservoir-models-under?redirectedFrom=fulltext