Detail publikačního výsledku

QUALITATIVE EQUATIONLESS MACROECONOMIC MODELS AS GENERATORS OF ALL POSSIBLE FORECASTS BASED ON THREE TREND VALUES – INCREASING, CONSTANT, DECREASING

DOUBRAVSKÝ, K.; DOHNAL, M.

Originální název

QUALITATIVE EQUATIONLESS MACROECONOMIC MODELS AS GENERATORS OF ALL POSSIBLE FORECASTS BASED ON THREE TREND VALUES – INCREASING, CONSTANT, DECREASING

Anglický název

QUALITATIVE EQUATIONLESS MACROECONOMIC MODELS AS GENERATORS OF ALL POSSIBLE FORECASTS BASED ON THREE TREND VALUES – INCREASING, CONSTANT, DECREASING

Druh

Článek WoS

Originální abstrakt

This paper studies macroeconomic models based on a set of qualitative heuristics. A qualitative heuristic is described using just trends; i.e. increasing, decreasing, constant. The trends are the least information intensive quantifiers. E.g. an unemployment is increasing more and more rapidly represents the positive first time derivative of the unemployment (increasing) and positive second derivative (more and more rapidly). It means that not just trends but higher derivatives can be incorporated into a model if they are qualitatively known. No quantitative quantifiers, e.g. numbers, fuzzy sets, are used in this paper. The solution of a qualitative model is a set S of scenarios. A set T of transitions among the set of scenarios S is used to generate an oriented graph H. Any future and past time behaviour of the system under study is described by a path within the graph H. A ten-dimensional macroeconomic serves as a case study.

Anglický abstrakt

This paper studies macroeconomic models based on a set of qualitative heuristics. A qualitative heuristic is described using just trends; i.e. increasing, decreasing, constant. The trends are the least information intensive quantifiers. E.g. an unemployment is increasing more and more rapidly represents the positive first time derivative of the unemployment (increasing) and positive second derivative (more and more rapidly). It means that not just trends but higher derivatives can be incorporated into a model if they are qualitatively known. No quantitative quantifiers, e.g. numbers, fuzzy sets, are used in this paper. The solution of a qualitative model is a set S of scenarios. A set T of transitions among the set of scenarios S is used to generate an oriented graph H. Any future and past time behaviour of the system under study is described by a path within the graph H. A ten-dimensional macroeconomic serves as a case study.

Klíčová slova

Qualitative, Dynamics, Multidimensional, Macroeconomic forecasting.

Klíčová slova v angličtině

Qualitative, Dynamics, Multidimensional, Macroeconomic forecasting.

Autoři

DOUBRAVSKÝ, K.; DOHNAL, M.

Rok RIV

2019

Vydáno

05.01.2018

Nakladatel

Elsevier

ISSN

0954-349X

Periodikum

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Svazek

2018

Číslo

45

Stát

Nizozemsko

Strany od

1

Strany do

7

Strany počet

7

URL

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0954349X16300352

BibTex

@article{BUT143820,
  author="Karel {Doubravský} and Mirko {Dohnal}",
  title="QUALITATIVE EQUATIONLESS MACROECONOMIC MODELS AS GENERATORS OF ALL POSSIBLE FORECASTS BASED ON THREE TREND VALUES – INCREASING, CONSTANT, DECREASING",
  journal="Structural Change and Economic Dynamics",
  year="2018",
  volume="2018",
  number="45",
  pages="1--7",
  doi="10.1016/j.strueco.2018.01.001",
  issn="0954-349X",
  url="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0954349X16300352"
}