Detail publikačního výsledku

Assessment of Large-Scale Projects Based on CBA

KORYTÁROVÁ, J.; PAPEŽÍKOVÁ, P.

Originální název

Assessment of Large-Scale Projects Based on CBA

Anglický název

Assessment of Large-Scale Projects Based on CBA

Druh

Článek Scopus

Originální abstrakt

CBA is a very important and strong tool for economic effectiveness evaluation of public investment projects. The outputs (NPV, IRR and BCR) are dependent on correctly set input data. As has been proved recently, an inaccuracy in forecast occurs very often. This paper deals with analysis of particular benefits, which help to create the total benefit for evaluation of road infrastructure projects and megaprojects based on CBA according to the Czech methodology. Moreover, it considers the overall inaccuracy of the project regarding the partial inaccuracies and their shares. Monte Carlo simulation has been applied in order to determine the share of particular benefits and the closest similar probability distribution of these shares to the total benefit of the project. Research results have confirmed that the largest share and the most severe inaccuracy in the total benefit is represented by savings in travel time costs. They have revealed that the share of this benefit has the logistic probability distribution with mean of about 77% and 20.72% of standard deviation. The inaccuracies of the particular benefits have been studied in international research. As a result, very large differences were found. That means that there is still a large space for exploration.

Anglický abstrakt

CBA is a very important and strong tool for economic effectiveness evaluation of public investment projects. The outputs (NPV, IRR and BCR) are dependent on correctly set input data. As has been proved recently, an inaccuracy in forecast occurs very often. This paper deals with analysis of particular benefits, which help to create the total benefit for evaluation of road infrastructure projects and megaprojects based on CBA according to the Czech methodology. Moreover, it considers the overall inaccuracy of the project regarding the partial inaccuracies and their shares. Monte Carlo simulation has been applied in order to determine the share of particular benefits and the closest similar probability distribution of these shares to the total benefit of the project. Research results have confirmed that the largest share and the most severe inaccuracy in the total benefit is represented by savings in travel time costs. They have revealed that the share of this benefit has the logistic probability distribution with mean of about 77% and 20.72% of standard deviation. The inaccuracies of the particular benefits have been studied in international research. As a result, very large differences were found. That means that there is still a large space for exploration.

Klíčová slova

Road infrastructure projects, cost-benefit analysis, benefits, probability distribution

Klíčová slova v angličtině

Road infrastructure projects, cost-benefit analysis, benefits, probability distribution

Autoři

KORYTÁROVÁ, J.; PAPEŽÍKOVÁ, P.

Rok RIV

2016

Vydáno

07.10.2015

Nakladatel

Elsevier

Kniha

ProjMAN - International Conference on Project MANagement

ISSN

1877-0509

Periodikum

Procedia Computer Science

Svazek

64

Číslo

1

Stát

Nizozemsko

Strany od

736

Strany do

743

Strany počet

8

URL

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1877050915027374

Plný text v Digitální knihovně

http://hdl.handle.net/11012/201059

BibTex

@article{BUT118766,
  author="Jana {Korytárová} and Petra {Pískatá}",
  title="Assessment of Large-Scale Projects Based on CBA",
  journal="Procedia Computer Science",
  year="2015",
  volume="64",
  number="1",
  pages="736--743",
  doi="10.1016/j.procs.2015.08.602",
  issn="1877-0509",
  url="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1877050915027374"
}

Dokumenty

1-s2.0-S1877050915027374-main