AI proliferation and productivity growth: Do we face a new wave of Solow's paradox?

AI proliferation and productivity growth: Do we face a new wave of Solow's paradox?

Článek WoS

Despite rapid and widespread adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) across firms in advanced economies, measured productivity growth has remained weak, raising concerns about a renewed Solow productivity paradox. This editorial reviews recent empirical evidence showing high nominal adoption rates alongside shallow, peripheral use; significant time lags consistent with a productivity J-curve; and the critical necessity of organizational restructuring, managerial practices, and human capital complementarities for realizing gains. While micro-level studies indicate meaningful productivity improvements where AI is deeply integrated, aggregate effects stay muted due to uneven diffusion, low intensity of use, and measurement challenges. Drawing parallels with earlier general-purpose technologies like electricity and ICT, we conclude that the current paradox is temporary and conditional on costly processes of economic and organizational reinvention. Realizing AI’s productivity potential requires sustained investments in the necessary institutional and human capital foundations.

Despite rapid and widespread adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) across firms in advanced economies, measured productivity growth has remained weak, raising concerns about a renewed Solow productivity paradox. This editorial reviews recent empirical evidence showing high nominal adoption rates alongside shallow, peripheral use; significant time lags consistent with a productivity J-curve; and the critical necessity of organizational restructuring, managerial practices, and human capital complementarities for realizing gains. While micro-level studies indicate meaningful productivity improvements where AI is deeply integrated, aggregate effects stay muted due to uneven diffusion, low intensity of use, and measurement challenges. Drawing parallels with earlier general-purpose technologies like electricity and ICT, we conclude that the current paradox is temporary and conditional on costly processes of economic and organizational reinvention. Realizing AI’s productivity potential requires sustained investments in the necessary institutional and human capital foundations.

Artificial Intelligence; Solow Paradox; Productivity Growth; Organizational Complementarities; Productivity J-Curve

Artificial Intelligence; Solow Paradox; Productivity Growth; Organizational Complementarities; Productivity J-Curve

BALCERZAK, A.; ŠKAPA, S.; ZINECKER, M.

01.03.2026

Inst Economic Research-Poland

Equilibrium

21

1

Polská republika

13

21

9

https://economic-policy.pl/index.php/eq/article/view/4250

http://hdl.handle.net/11012/260182