Comparison of Deterministic Approach and Monte Carlo Methods for Stochastic PERT Chart

Comparison of Deterministic Approach and Monte Carlo Methods for Stochastic PERT Chart

Stať ve sborníku v databázi WoS či Scopus

The paper deals with a comparison of two different approaches (deterministic approach and Monte Carlo method) calculation of the probability of completion of the project. The base assumption of authors can be expressed: The difference between the results obtained by the Monte Carlo method and deterministic approach is not significant with increasing number of simulations (iterations). For this reason the hypothesis was formulated: There is no statistically significant difference between the calculated probabilities, i.e. both approaches are identical from application point of view. The problem was solved using the example project whose model (network chart) contained 18 nodes and 24 activities (18 real. 6 fictions). For each activity have been known three time estimates (pessimistic, most likely, optimistic). The planned date of completion of the project was selected at 200 time units and it was calculated the probability of completion of the project by deterministic approach and Monte Carlo method. The calculated probabilities of project completion were compared using statistical hypothesis testing. The hypothesis was rejected for all testing. It follows that there is difference between the approaches from application point of view.

The paper deals with a comparison of two different approaches (deterministic approach and Monte Carlo method) calculation of the probability of completion of the project. The base assumption of authors can be expressed: The difference between the results obtained by the Monte Carlo method and deterministic approach is not significant with increasing number of simulations (iterations). For this reason the hypothesis was formulated: There is no statistically significant difference between the calculated probabilities, i.e. both approaches are identical from application point of view. The problem was solved using the example project whose model (network chart) contained 18 nodes and 24 activities (18 real. 6 fictions). For each activity have been known three time estimates (pessimistic, most likely, optimistic). The planned date of completion of the project was selected at 200 time units and it was calculated the probability of completion of the project by deterministic approach and Monte Carlo method. The calculated probabilities of project completion were compared using statistical hypothesis testing. The hypothesis was rejected for all testing. It follows that there is difference between the approaches from application point of view.

Monte Carlo, PERT method, probability of project completion, statistical testing.

Monte Carlo, PERT method, probability of project completion, statistical testing.

DOUBRAVSKÝ, K.; DOSKOČIL, R.

13.05.2014

International Business Information Management Association (IBIMA)

Valencia, Spain

978-0-9860419-2-1

Vision 2020: Sustainable Growth, Economic Development, and Global Competitiveness

1923

1929

7