Detail publikace

Qualitative analysis of the Goodwin model of the growth cycle

DOHNAL, M. SEREBRIAKOV, V.

Originální název

Qualitative analysis of the Goodwin model of the growth cycle

Typ

článek v časopise ve Scopus, Jsc

Jazyk

angličtina

Originální abstrakt

Goodwin's model is a set of ordinary differential equations and is a wellknown model of the growth cycle. However, its four constants require an extensive numerical study of its two differential equations to identify all possible unsteady state behaviors, i.e. phase portraits, which corresponds to infinitely many combinations of numerical values of the constants. Qualitative interpretation of Goodwin's model solves these problems by replacing all numerical constants and all derivatives by trends (increasing, constant and decreasing). The model has two variables - the employment rate V, and the labour share U. A solution of the qualitative Goodwin's model is a scenario. An example of a Goodwin's scenario is - V is increasing more and more rapidly, U is decreasing and the decrease is slowing down. The complete set of all possible 41 Goodwin's scenarios and 168 time transitions among them are given. This result qualitatively represents all possible unsteady state Goodwin's behaviours. It is therefore possible to predict all possible future behaviours if a current behaviour is known/chosen. A prediction example is presented in details. No prior knowledge of qualitative model theory is required.

Klíčová slova

Business cycle, Goodwin model, Qualitative, Scenario, Transition

Autoři

DOHNAL, M.; SEREBRIAKOV, V.

Vydáno

1. 7. 2017

Nakladatel

Universidad Pablo de Olavide

ISSN

1886-516X

Periodikum

Revista de Metodos Cuantitativos para la Economia y la Empresa

Číslo

23

Stát

Španělské království

Strany od

223

Strany do

233

Strany počet

11

URL

https://www.upo.es/revistas/index.php/RevMetCuant/article/view/2694

BibTex

@article{BUT157881,
  author="Mirko {Dohnal} and Vladimir {Serebriakov}",
  title="Qualitative analysis of the Goodwin model of the growth cycle",
  journal="Revista de Metodos Cuantitativos para la Economia y la Empresa",
  year="2017",
  number="23",
  pages="223--233",
  issn="1886-516X",
  url="https://www.upo.es/revistas/index.php/RevMetCuant/article/view/2694"
}