Publication detail

Qualitative analysis of the Goodwin model of the growth cycle

DOHNAL, M. SEREBRIAKOV, V.

Original Title

Qualitative analysis of the Goodwin model of the growth cycle

Type

journal article in Scopus

Language

English

Original Abstract

Goodwin's model is a set of ordinary differential equations and is a wellknown model of the growth cycle. However, its four constants require an extensive numerical study of its two differential equations to identify all possible unsteady state behaviors, i.e. phase portraits, which corresponds to infinitely many combinations of numerical values of the constants. Qualitative interpretation of Goodwin's model solves these problems by replacing all numerical constants and all derivatives by trends (increasing, constant and decreasing). The model has two variables - the employment rate V, and the labour share U. A solution of the qualitative Goodwin's model is a scenario. An example of a Goodwin's scenario is - V is increasing more and more rapidly, U is decreasing and the decrease is slowing down. The complete set of all possible 41 Goodwin's scenarios and 168 time transitions among them are given. This result qualitatively represents all possible unsteady state Goodwin's behaviours. It is therefore possible to predict all possible future behaviours if a current behaviour is known/chosen. A prediction example is presented in details. No prior knowledge of qualitative model theory is required.

Keywords

Business cycle, Goodwin model, Qualitative, Scenario, Transition

Authors

DOHNAL, M.; SEREBRIAKOV, V.

Released

1. 7. 2017

Publisher

Universidad Pablo de Olavide

ISBN

1886-516X

Periodical

Revista de Metodos Cuantitativos para la Economia y la Empresa

Number

23

State

Kingdom of Spain

Pages from

223

Pages to

233

Pages count

11

URL

https://www.upo.es/revistas/index.php/RevMetCuant/article/view/2694

BibTex

@article{BUT157881,
  author="Mirko {Dohnal} and Vladimir {Serebriakov}",
  title="Qualitative analysis of the Goodwin model of the growth cycle",
  journal="Revista de Metodos Cuantitativos para la Economia y la Empresa",
  year="2017",
  number="23",
  pages="223--233",
  issn="1886-516X",
  url="https://www.upo.es/revistas/index.php/RevMetCuant/article/view/2694"
}