Publication detail

Geopolitical deadlock and phosphate shortfall behind the price hike? Evidence from Moroccan commodity markets

ŠIRÁŇOVÁ, L. VOCHOZKA, M. JANEK, S.

Original Title

Geopolitical deadlock and phosphate shortfall behind the price hike? Evidence from Moroccan commodity markets

Type

journal article in Web of Science

Language

English

Original Abstract

Phosphate fertilisers rank among limited conventional production aids, requiring eco-unfriendly mining methods. On the other hand, wheat is an indispensable agricultural commodity essential in the food industry. For this reason, it is appropriate to monitor the potential bivariate relationship between these commodities and to follow their future development closely. The article aims to identify a correlation (Kendall's tau) and causal (Granger causality test) between the price of Moroccan phosphate and wheat, applying vector autoregression (VAR). The results show a medium-to-strong correlation between phosphate and wheat, while causal analysis suggests a reciprocal relationship. The final prediction indicates the price stability of Moroccan phosphate and a fall in wheat prices, showing steady trends of the Moroccan phosphate and wheat market affected by the alarming situation in Ukraine. The article's drawbacks are a narrow market specialisation, which ignores other agricultural commodities. Our findings contribute to national officeholders and professional public, private and non-profit agrarian organisations. Investors may benefit from exploring turbulent exogenous variables like a critical geopolitical deadlock in Ukraine. The main contribution highlights the fact that the conventional fertiliser and wheat market situation appears to be stable and free from elements of uncertainty.

Keywords

Granger causality; Kendall's tau; Moroccan phosphate; Vector Autoregression Model; wheat

Authors

ŠIRÁŇOVÁ, L.; VOCHOZKA, M.; JANEK, S.

Released

11. 8. 2023

Publisher

CZECH ACADEMY AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES

Location

PRAGUE

ISBN

1805-9295

Periodical

Agricultural Economics-Zemedelska Ekonomika

Year of study

69

Number

8

State

Czech Republic

Pages from

301

Pages to

308

Pages count

8

URL

https://agricecon.agriculturejournals.cz/artkey/age-202308-0002_geopolitical-deadlock-and-phosphate-shortfall-behind-the-price-hike-evidence-from-moroccan-commodity-markets.php

Full text in the Digital Library

http://hdl.handle.net/11012/245047

BibTex

@article{BUT184650,
  author="Marek {Vochozka} and Svatopluk {Janek} and Lenka {Širáňová}",
  title="Geopolitical deadlock and phosphate shortfall behind the price hike? Evidence from Moroccan commodity markets",
  journal="Agricultural Economics-Zemedelska Ekonomika",
  year="2023",
  volume="69",
  number="8",
  pages="301--308",
  doi="10.17221/140/2023-AGRICECON",
  issn="1805-9295",
  url="https://agricecon.agriculturejournals.cz/artkey/age-202308-0002_geopolitical-deadlock-and-phosphate-shortfall-behind-the-price-hike-evidence-from-moroccan-commodity-markets.php"
}