Trend model of integration monetary and fiscal politics

conference paper

English

Research background: Monetary and fiscal policy tasks can be unique, com plex and multidisciplinary – economy, sociology, politic s, and etc. These are the main reasons why such tasks are solved under information shortages. Trends, i.e. increasing, decreasing, constant values, are the le ast information intensive quantifiers. Trend heuristics quantified by trends; „a growth rate of money supply (M1) is increasing” is a trend heuristic. A set of trend heuristics is studied as a generator of a complete list of all possible trend scenarios. Methods: The solution of a trend model M(X) is a set S of sc enarios where X is the set of n variables. A set T of transitions amon g the set of scenarios S is used to generate unsteady state behaviours formalised by an oriented graph H. Any future and past time behaviour of a system under study is characterised by a path within the transitional graph H. A tree, which is a sub gr aph of the graph H can be used as a trend decision tree. The data set required by the standard evaluation of a decision tree is usually available just partially. This pape r presents a very simple evaluation algorithm, which is based on an easy to understand evaluation heuristics, e.g. “a longer decision tree sub-path is less probable. The case study presents six trend models M(X) and their solutions. Findings & Value added: The largest model has 28 trend heuristics and 13 scenarios. The relevant transitional grap his prese nted in details.

Monetary policy; fiscal policy; decision tree; debt ; shares decision tree

ČUPEROVÁ, L.

26. 6. 2019

Polish Economic Society Branch in Toruń

Toruń

978-83-65605-10-8

10th International Conference on Applied Economics Contemporary Issues in Economy

64

64

1

http://economic-research.pl/Books/index.php/eep/catalog/book/39