Decision making on capital markets using nonnumerical model based on qualitative trends

Decision making on capital markets using nonnumerical model based on qualitative trends

Peer-reviewed article not indexed in WoS or Scopus

One of the main objectives of this study is to develop a qualitative model that will serve the decision makers' CFOs (chief financial officers), where, as a rule, it is decided without deeper processing of information many factors that affect each other significantly. Lack of appropriate statistical information in connection with turbulently changing environments suggests that further research is needed to extend existing IPO models based on statistical analyzes. The paper is using basic qualitative research of trends. A qualitative trend model can be developed under conditions when the relevant quantitative model must be heavily simplified. The key information input into IPO is expert knowledge. The solution of a trend model M(X) is a set S of scenarios where X is the set of n variables quantified by the trends. All possible transitions among the scenarios S are generated. An oriented transitional graph G has as nodes the set of scenarios S and as arcs the transitions T. An oriented G path describes any possible future and past time behaviour of the IPO system under study. The case study presents a model based on integration of equationless relations using 8 variables e.g. Market condition, Recognisability or Liquidity risk. There are 17 scenarios S and 41 transitions T among them. All pairs of relationships are based on trends, either increasing, constant, or decreasing. The key input of the correct IPO timing analysis is based on the knowledge of experts traced from qualitative heuristics. The transition graph is a qualitative interpretation of all possible quantitative time series of all variables used in our IPO timetable and should be used as an effective tool to support CFO decisions.

One of the main objectives of this study is to develop a qualitative model that will serve the decision makers' CFOs (chief financial officers), where, as a rule, it is decided without deeper processing of information many factors that affect each other significantly. Lack of appropriate statistical information in connection with turbulently changing environments suggests that further research is needed to extend existing IPO models based on statistical analyzes. The paper is using basic qualitative research of trends. A qualitative trend model can be developed under conditions when the relevant quantitative model must be heavily simplified. The key information input into IPO is expert knowledge. The solution of a trend model M(X) is a set S of scenarios where X is the set of n variables quantified by the trends. All possible transitions among the scenarios S are generated. An oriented transitional graph G has as nodes the set of scenarios S and as arcs the transitions T. An oriented G path describes any possible future and past time behaviour of the IPO system under study. The case study presents a model based on integration of equationless relations using 8 variables e.g. Market condition, Recognisability or Liquidity risk. There are 17 scenarios S and 41 transitions T among them. All pairs of relationships are based on trends, either increasing, constant, or decreasing. The key input of the correct IPO timing analysis is based on the knowledge of experts traced from qualitative heuristics. The transition graph is a qualitative interpretation of all possible quantitative time series of all variables used in our IPO timetable and should be used as an effective tool to support CFO decisions.

bankruptcy, capital markets, forecast, IPO, qualitative, transition, trend.

bankruptcy, capital markets, forecast, IPO, qualitative, transition, trend.

POLÁČEK, T.; MELUZÍN, T.; CHLÁDEK, L.

2019

06.03.2019

1212-415X

Acta academica karviniensia

19

1

Czech Republic

71

83

12

http://aak.slu.cz/doi/10.25142/aak.2019.006.html

aak_aak-201901-0006