Publication result detail

QUALITATIVE EQUATIONLESS MACROECONOMIC MODELS AS GENERATORS OF ALL POSSIBLE FORECASTS BASED ON THREE TREND VALUES – INCREASING, CONSTANT, DECREASING

DOUBRAVSKÝ, K.; DOHNAL, M.

Original Title

QUALITATIVE EQUATIONLESS MACROECONOMIC MODELS AS GENERATORS OF ALL POSSIBLE FORECASTS BASED ON THREE TREND VALUES – INCREASING, CONSTANT, DECREASING

English Title

QUALITATIVE EQUATIONLESS MACROECONOMIC MODELS AS GENERATORS OF ALL POSSIBLE FORECASTS BASED ON THREE TREND VALUES – INCREASING, CONSTANT, DECREASING

Type

WoS Article

Original Abstract

This paper studies macroeconomic models based on a set of qualitative heuristics. A qualitative heuristic is described using just trends; i.e. increasing, decreasing, constant. The trends are the least information intensive quantifiers. E.g. an unemployment is increasing more and more rapidly represents the positive first time derivative of the unemployment (increasing) and positive second derivative (more and more rapidly). It means that not just trends but higher derivatives can be incorporated into a model if they are qualitatively known. No quantitative quantifiers, e.g. numbers, fuzzy sets, are used in this paper. The solution of a qualitative model is a set S of scenarios. A set T of transitions among the set of scenarios S is used to generate an oriented graph H. Any future and past time behaviour of the system under study is described by a path within the graph H. A ten-dimensional macroeconomic serves as a case study.

English abstract

This paper studies macroeconomic models based on a set of qualitative heuristics. A qualitative heuristic is described using just trends; i.e. increasing, decreasing, constant. The trends are the least information intensive quantifiers. E.g. an unemployment is increasing more and more rapidly represents the positive first time derivative of the unemployment (increasing) and positive second derivative (more and more rapidly). It means that not just trends but higher derivatives can be incorporated into a model if they are qualitatively known. No quantitative quantifiers, e.g. numbers, fuzzy sets, are used in this paper. The solution of a qualitative model is a set S of scenarios. A set T of transitions among the set of scenarios S is used to generate an oriented graph H. Any future and past time behaviour of the system under study is described by a path within the graph H. A ten-dimensional macroeconomic serves as a case study.

Keywords

Qualitative, Dynamics, Multidimensional, Macroeconomic forecasting.

Key words in English

Qualitative, Dynamics, Multidimensional, Macroeconomic forecasting.

Authors

DOUBRAVSKÝ, K.; DOHNAL, M.

RIV year

2019

Released

05.01.2018

Publisher

Elsevier

ISBN

0954-349X

Periodical

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Volume

2018

Number

45

State

Kingdom of the Netherlands

Pages from

1

Pages to

7

Pages count

7

URL

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0954349X16300352

BibTex

@article{BUT143820,
  author="Karel {Doubravský} and Mirko {Dohnal}",
  title="QUALITATIVE EQUATIONLESS MACROECONOMIC MODELS AS GENERATORS OF ALL POSSIBLE FORECASTS BASED ON THREE TREND VALUES – INCREASING, CONSTANT, DECREASING",
  journal="Structural Change and Economic Dynamics",
  year="2018",
  volume="2018",
  number="45",
  pages="1--7",
  doi="10.1016/j.strueco.2018.01.001",
  issn="0954-349X",
  url="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0954349X16300352"
}