Publication detail

Decision making on capital markets using nonnumerical model based on qualitative trends

POLÁČEK, T. MELUZÍN, T. CHLÁDEK, L.

Original Title

Decision making on capital markets using nonnumerical model based on qualitative trends

Type

journal article - other

Language

English

Original Abstract

One of the main objectives of this study is to develop a qualitative model that will serve the decision makers' CFOs (chief financial officers), where, as a rule, it is decided without deeper processing of information many factors that affect each other significantly. Lack of appropriate statistical information in connection with turbulently changing environments suggests that further research is needed to extend existing IPO models based on statistical analyzes. The paper is using basic qualitative research of trends. A qualitative trend model can be developed under conditions when the relevant quantitative model must be heavily simplified. The key information input into IPO is expert knowledge. The solution of a trend model M(X) is a set S of scenarios where X is the set of n variables quantified by the trends. All possible transitions among the scenarios S are generated. An oriented transitional graph G has as nodes the set of scenarios S and as arcs the transitions T. An oriented G path describes any possible future and past time behaviour of the IPO system under study. The case study presents a model based on integration of equationless relations using 8 variables e.g. Market condition, Recognisability or Liquidity risk. There are 17 scenarios S and 41 transitions T among them. All pairs of relationships are based on trends, either increasing, constant, or decreasing. The key input of the correct IPO timing analysis is based on the knowledge of experts traced from qualitative heuristics. The transition graph is a qualitative interpretation of all possible quantitative time series of all variables used in our IPO timetable and should be used as an effective tool to support CFO decisions.

Keywords

bankruptcy, capital markets, forecast, IPO, qualitative, transition, trend.

Authors

POLÁČEK, T.; MELUZÍN, T.; CHLÁDEK, L.

Released

6. 3. 2019

ISBN

1212-415X

Periodical

Acta academica karviniensia

Year of study

19

Number

1

State

Czech Republic

Pages from

71

Pages to

83

Pages count

12

URL

http://aak.slu.cz/doi/10.25142/aak.2019.006.html

BibTex

@article{BUT156319,
  author="Tomáš {Poláček} and Tomáš {Meluzín} and Libor {Chládek}",
  title="Decision making on capital markets using nonnumerical model based on qualitative trends",
  journal="Acta academica karviniensia",
  year="2019",
  volume="19",
  number="1",
  pages="71--83",
  doi="10.25142/aak.2019.006",
  issn="1212-415X",
  url="http://aak.slu.cz/doi/10.25142/aak.2019.006.html"
}