Publication detail

Risk Assessment of Large-Scale Infrastructure Projects - Assumptions and Context

KORYTÁROVÁ, J. HROMÁDKA, V.

Original Title

Risk Assessment of Large-Scale Infrastructure Projects - Assumptions and Context

Type

journal article in Web of Science

Language

English

Original Abstract

This article deals with the partial outputs of large-scale infrastructure project risk assessment, specifically in the field of road and motorway construction. The Department of Transport spends a large amount of funds on project preparation and implementation, which however, must be allocated effectively, and with knowledge of the risks that may accompany them. Therefore, documentation for decision-making on project financing also includes their analysis. This article monitors the frequency of occurrence of individual risk factors within the qualitative risk analysis, with the support of the national risk register, and identifies dependent variables that represent part of the economic cash flows for determining project economic efficiency. At the same time, it compares these dependent variables identified by sensitivity analysis with critical variables, followed by testing the interaction of the critical variables’ effect on the project efficiency using the Monte Carlo method. A partial section of the research was focused on the analysis of the probability distribution of input variables, especially “the investment costs” and “time savings of infrastructure users” variables. The research findings conclude that it is necessary to pay attention to the setting of statistical characteristics of variables entering the economic efficiency indicator calculations, as the decision of whether or not to accept projects for funding is based on them.

Keywords

CBA; investment project; probability distribution; sensitivity analyses; risk assessment

Authors

KORYTÁROVÁ, J.; HROMÁDKA, V.

Released

24. 12. 2020

Publisher

MDPI

Location

Switzerland

ISBN

2076-3417

Periodical

Applied Sciences - Basel

Year of study

11

Number

1

State

Swiss Confederation

Pages from

1

Pages to

12

Pages count

12

URL

https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/11/1/109

Full text in the Digital Library

http://hdl.handle.net/11012/195828

BibTex

@article{BUT167453,
  author="Jana {Korytárová} and Vít {Hromádka}",
  title="Risk Assessment of Large-Scale Infrastructure Projects - Assumptions and Context",
  journal="Applied Sciences - Basel",
  year="2020",
  volume="11",
  number="1",
  pages="1--12",
  doi="10.3390/app11010109",
  issn="2076-3417",
  url="https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/11/1/109"
}